Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Industry

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Swancor Advanced Materials Co., Ltd. (688585.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.37 - $1.95$1.66
Multi-Stage$2.11 - $2.32$2.21
Blended Fair Value$1.93
Current Price$132.10
Upside-98.54%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS6.94%0.00%0.060.020.000.080.000.040.090.180.210.00
YoY Growth--175.29%811.66%-96.96%6,927.13%-97.39%-54.22%-46.96%-16.50%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.80%0.34%0.03%0.82%0.01%0.27%0.58%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)84.18
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)28.85
(=) Cash Retained (M)55.33
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)16.8410.526.31
Cash Retained (M)55.3355.3355.33
(-) Cash Required (M)-16.84-10.52-6.31
(=) Excess Retained (M)38.5044.8149.02
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)403.36403.36403.36
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.100.110.12
LTM Dividend per Share0.070.070.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.100.110.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.170.180.19
WACC / Discount Rate9.90%9.90%9.90%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$1.37$1.66$1.95
Upside / Downside-98.96%-98.75%-98.52%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)84.1883.3482.5181.6880.8680.0682.46
Payout Ratio34.27%45.42%56.56%67.71%78.85%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)28.8537.8546.6755.3063.7672.0576.27

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.90%9.90%9.90%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)34.0934.4434.79
Year 2 PV (M)37.8638.6339.42
Year 3 PV (M)40.4141.6642.93
Year 4 PV (M)41.9643.7045.50
Year 5 PV (M)42.7144.9347.25
PV of Terminal Value (M)654.77688.86724.36
Equity Value (M)851.80892.23934.25
Shares Outstanding (M)403.36403.36403.36
Fair Value$2.11$2.21$2.32
Upside / Downside-98.40%-98.33%-98.25%

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