Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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JinGuan Electric Co., Ltd. (688517.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$15.65 - $47.66$24.92
Multi-Stage$16.32 - $17.86$17.08
Blended Fair Value$21.00
Current Price$15.34
Upside36.88%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS14.59%0.00%0.510.210.430.010.010.260.000.290.000.00
YoY Growth--137.36%-50.48%4,156.27%-24.31%-94.78%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.66%1.70%2.26%0.07%0.09%1.65%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)84.05
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)77.02
(=) Cash Retained (M)7.03
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)16.8110.516.30
Cash Retained (M)7.037.037.03
(-) Cash Required (M)-16.81-10.51-6.30
(=) Excess Retained (M)-9.78-3.480.72
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)136.14136.14136.14
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.07-0.030.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.570.570.57
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.07-0.030.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.490.540.57
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate3.39%4.39%5.39%
Fair Value$15.65$24.92$47.66
Upside / Downside2.03%62.46%210.67%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)84.0587.7491.6095.6299.83104.21107.34
Payout Ratio91.64%91.31%90.98%90.66%90.33%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)77.0280.1283.3486.6990.1793.7999.29

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate3.39%4.39%5.39%
Year 1 PV (M)74.4075.1275.84
Year 2 PV (M)71.8773.2674.67
Year 3 PV (M)69.4271.4573.52
Year 4 PV (M)67.0569.6872.39
Year 5 PV (M)64.7667.9571.27
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,874.721,967.152,063.19
Equity Value (M)2,222.212,324.622,430.89
Shares Outstanding (M)136.14136.14136.14
Fair Value$16.32$17.08$17.86
Upside / Downside6.41%11.31%16.40%

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