Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Kontour (Xi'an) Medical Technology Co., Ltd. (688314.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - DevicesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$25.08 - $64.60$38.00
Multi-Stage$17.53 - $19.14$18.32
Blended Fair Value$28.16
Current Price$36.17
Upside-22.14%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS166.65%0.00%0.530.390.460.380.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--34.16%-13.74%20.38%9,170.51%4.38%1,363.28%7.17%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.00%1.74%1.27%1.06%0.01%0.01%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)88.40
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)30.69
(=) Cash Retained (M)57.71
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)17.6811.056.63
Cash Retained (M)57.7157.7157.71
(-) Cash Required (M)-17.68-11.05-6.63
(=) Excess Retained (M)40.0346.6651.08
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)80.7080.7080.70
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.500.580.63
LTM Dividend per Share0.380.380.38
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.500.580.63
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.880.961.01
WACC / Discount Rate9.19%9.19%9.19%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$25.08$38.00$64.60
Upside / Downside-30.65%5.07%78.61%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)88.4094.15100.27106.78113.72121.12124.75
Payout Ratio34.72%45.77%56.83%67.89%78.94%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)30.6943.0956.9872.4989.78109.01115.39

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.19%9.19%9.19%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)39.1039.4739.84
Year 2 PV (M)46.9047.8048.70
Year 3 PV (M)54.1455.6957.27
Year 4 PV (M)60.8363.1765.57
Year 5 PV (M)67.0170.2473.60
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,146.701,202.081,259.59
Equity Value (M)1,414.671,478.451,544.58
Shares Outstanding (M)80.7080.7080.70
Fair Value$17.53$18.32$19.14
Upside / Downside-51.53%-49.35%-47.08%

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