Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Beijing Chunlizhengda Medical Instruments Co., Ltd. (688236.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - DevicesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$26.39 - $133.33$54.60
Multi-Stage$14.98 - $16.36$15.66
Blended Fair Value$35.13
Current Price$24.91
Upside41.02%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS24.59%31.54%0.450.320.130.000.030.150.040.030.020.02
YoY Growth--42.04%140.32%0.00%-100.00%-81.74%255.55%49.03%76.14%0.00%-44.66%
Dividend Yield--3.30%1.50%0.43%0.00%0.10%0.52%0.15%0.10%0.06%0.06%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)255.37
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)170.53
(=) Cash Retained (M)84.83
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)51.0731.9219.15
Cash Retained (M)84.8384.8384.83
(-) Cash Required (M)-51.07-31.92-19.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)33.7652.9165.68
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)380.90380.90380.90
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.090.140.17
LTM Dividend per Share0.450.450.45
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.090.140.17
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.540.590.62
WACC / Discount Rate7.64%7.64%7.64%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$26.39$54.60$133.33
Upside / Downside5.94%119.19%435.26%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)255.37271.97289.64308.47328.52349.88360.37
Payout Ratio66.78%71.42%76.07%80.71%85.36%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)170.53194.25220.33248.97280.41314.89333.34

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.64%7.64%7.64%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)178.76180.45182.15
Year 2 PV (M)186.59190.14193.73
Year 3 PV (M)194.04199.61205.28
Year 4 PV (M)201.12208.85216.81
Year 5 PV (M)207.83217.87228.30
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,737.394,966.215,203.79
Equity Value (M)5,705.735,963.146,230.05
Shares Outstanding (M)380.90380.90380.90
Fair Value$14.98$15.66$16.36
Upside / Downside-39.86%-37.15%-34.34%

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