Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Suzhou TZTEK Technology Co., Ltd (688003.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$17.22 - $56.06$27.92
Multi-Stage$11.00 - $12.03$11.51
Blended Fair Value$19.72
Current Price$58.06
Upside-66.04%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%36.89%0.680.370.440.700.200.000.110.110.070.18
YoY Growth--82.27%-14.70%-37.97%250.05%0.00%-100.00%2.93%53.71%-61.09%525.27%
Dividend Yield--1.32%0.99%1.05%2.45%0.69%0.00%0.24%0.23%0.15%0.39%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)123.19
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)10.84
(=) Cash Retained (M)112.35
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)24.6415.409.24
Cash Retained (M)112.35112.35112.35
(-) Cash Required (M)-24.64-15.40-9.24
(=) Excess Retained (M)87.7196.95103.11
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)192.59192.59192.59
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.460.500.54
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.460.500.54
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.510.560.59
WACC / Discount Rate8.63%8.63%8.63%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$17.22$27.92$56.06
Upside / Downside-70.34%-51.90%-3.44%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)123.19131.20139.72148.81158.48168.78173.84
Payout Ratio8.80%25.04%41.28%57.52%73.76%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)10.8432.8557.6885.59116.89151.90160.81

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.63%8.63%8.63%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)29.9530.2430.52
Year 2 PV (M)47.9648.8749.79
Year 3 PV (M)64.9066.7668.66
Year 4 PV (M)80.8283.9387.13
Year 5 PV (M)95.77100.40105.20
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,799.361,886.271,976.50
Equity Value (M)2,118.762,216.472,317.81
Shares Outstanding (M)192.59192.59192.59
Fair Value$11.00$11.51$12.03
Upside / Downside-81.05%-80.18%-79.27%

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