Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Nihon Kohden Corporation (6849.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - DevicesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,745.96 - $3,344.03$2,387.26
Multi-Stage$2,081.06 - $2,281.40$2,179.35
Blended Fair Value$2,283.30
Current Price$1,690.50
Upside35.07%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS11.35%4.44%31.1236.4234.9829.5518.1818.1818.2018.2818.2918.47
YoY Growth---14.54%4.10%18.40%62.54%-0.03%-0.10%-0.43%-0.03%-0.99%-8.33%
Dividend Yield--1.81%1.58%1.82%2.13%1.15%1.00%1.23%1.19%1.41%1.29%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)18,159.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5,107.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)13,052.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3,631.802,269.881,361.93
Cash Retained (M)13,052.0013,052.0013,052.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-3,631.80-2,269.88-1,361.93
(=) Excess Retained (M)9,420.2010,782.1311,690.08
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)163.88163.88163.88
(=) Excess Retained per Share57.4865.7971.33
LTM Dividend per Share31.1631.1631.16
(+) Excess Retained per Share57.4865.7971.33
(=) Adjusted Dividend88.6596.96102.50
WACC / Discount Rate7.64%7.64%7.64%
Growth Rate2.44%3.44%4.44%
Fair Value$1,745.96$2,387.26$3,344.03
Upside / Downside3.28%41.22%97.81%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)18,159.0018,784.2119,430.9520,099.9620,792.0021,507.8722,153.10
Payout Ratio28.12%40.50%52.87%65.25%77.62%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5,107.007,607.4310,273.9813,115.1316,139.7419,357.0820,491.62

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.64%7.64%7.64%
Growth Rate2.44%3.44%4.44%
Year 1 PV (M)6,998.877,067.197,135.51
Year 2 PV (M)8,696.008,866.609,038.86
Year 3 PV (M)10,212.7710,514.7810,822.68
Year 4 PV (M)11,562.6712,020.8012,492.41
Year 5 PV (M)12,758.2713,393.2514,053.26
PV of Terminal Value (M)290,813.11305,286.84320,331.20
Equity Value (M)341,041.70357,149.46373,873.92
Shares Outstanding (M)163.88163.88163.88
Fair Value$2,081.06$2,179.35$2,281.40
Upside / Downside23.10%28.92%34.95%

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