Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

SciClone Pharmaceuticals (Holdings) Limited (6600.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$11.31 - $16.03$13.64
Multi-Stage$16.91 - $18.57$17.73
Blended Fair Value$15.68
Current Price$12.61
Upside24.39%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2023202220212020201920182017
DPS-17.52%0.00%0.330.321.273.340.330.870.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--4.57%-75.15%-61.94%927.32%-62.44%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.62%3.53%18.30%21.13%1.94%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,121.90
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)215.02
(=) Cash Retained (M)906.88
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)224.38140.2484.14
Cash Retained (M)906.88906.88906.88
(-) Cash Required (M)-224.38-140.24-84.14
(=) Excess Retained (M)682.50766.65822.74
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)650.43650.43650.43
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.051.181.26
LTM Dividend per Share0.330.330.33
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.051.181.26
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.381.511.60
WACC / Discount Rate9.95%9.95%9.95%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$11.31$13.64$16.03
Upside / Downside-10.27%8.19%27.14%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,121.901,110.681,099.581,088.581,077.691,066.921,098.93
Payout Ratio19.17%33.33%47.50%61.67%75.83%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)215.02370.22522.29671.29817.25960.231,016.51

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.95%9.95%9.95%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)333.31336.71340.11
Year 2 PV (M)423.34432.03440.80
Year 3 PV (M)489.86505.01520.47
Year 4 PV (M)536.92559.18582.11
Year 5 PV (M)567.96597.54628.33
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,649.179,099.559,568.50
Equity Value (M)11,000.5711,530.0212,080.33
Shares Outstanding (M)650.43650.43650.43
Fair Value$16.91$17.73$18.57
Upside / Downside34.12%40.58%47.29%

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