Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Ebara Corporation (6361.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$26,842.27 - $31,624.75$29,637.02
Multi-Stage$18,983.05 - $20,832.16$19,890.34
Blended Fair Value$24,763.68
Current Price$2,778.00
Upside791.42%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720172016
DPS31.10%18.81%49.2340.9739.4022.6112.3612.719.8913.1812.0714.32
YoY Growth--20.17%3.99%74.23%83.00%-2.79%28.46%-24.91%9.15%-15.72%63.01%
Dividend Yield--2.19%1.53%3.21%1.65%1.37%3.09%1.54%1.70%1.94%2.55%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)73,527.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)25,404.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)48,123.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)14,705.409,190.885,514.53
Cash Retained (M)48,123.0048,123.0048,123.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-14,705.40-9,190.88-5,514.53
(=) Excess Retained (M)33,417.6038,932.1342,608.48
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)462.38462.38462.38
(=) Excess Retained per Share72.2784.2092.15
LTM Dividend per Share54.9454.9454.94
(+) Excess Retained per Share72.2784.2092.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend127.21139.14147.09
WACC / Discount Rate1.51%1.51%1.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$26,842.27$29,637.02$31,624.75
Upside / Downside866.24%966.85%1,038.40%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)73,527.0078,306.2683,396.1688,816.9194,590.01100,738.36103,760.51
Payout Ratio34.55%45.64%56.73%67.82%78.91%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)25,404.0035,739.3347,310.9360,235.8374,641.0990,664.5395,978.47

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate1.51%1.51%1.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)34,876.2535,206.8335,537.41
Year 2 PV (M)45,053.4545,911.6046,777.83
Year 3 PV (M)55,976.3957,583.2759,220.61
Year 4 PV (M)67,687.9270,291.0172,968.46
Year 5 PV (M)80,233.1784,108.4688,132.07
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,493,572.288,903,815.009,329,758.67
Equity Value (M)8,777,399.469,196,916.169,632,395.05
Shares Outstanding (M)462.38462.38462.38
Fair Value$18,983.05$19,890.34$20,832.16
Upside / Downside583.33%616.00%649.90%

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