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Definitive Analysis

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ATE Energy International Co., Ltd. (6179.TWO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$14.41 - $22.30$18.07
Multi-Stage$33.29 - $36.62$34.92
Blended Fair Value$26.50
Current Price$32.00
Upside-17.20%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS-15.36%0.00%0.270.000.801.160.540.620.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%-100.00%-31.15%115.58%-13.18%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.12%0.00%2.75%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)186.65
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)115.59
(=) Cash Retained (M)71.06
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)37.3323.3314.00
Cash Retained (M)71.0671.0671.06
(-) Cash Required (M)-37.33-23.33-14.00
(=) Excess Retained (M)33.7347.7357.06
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)120.59120.59120.59
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.280.400.47
LTM Dividend per Share0.960.960.96
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.280.400.47
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.241.351.43
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$14.41$18.07$22.30
Upside / Downside-54.96%-43.53%-30.31%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)186.65184.78182.94181.11179.30177.50182.83
Payout Ratio61.93%67.54%73.16%78.77%84.39%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)115.59124.81133.83142.66151.30159.75169.12

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)116.09117.28118.46
Year 2 PV (M)115.79118.17120.57
Year 3 PV (M)114.82118.37121.99
Year 4 PV (M)113.27117.96122.80
Year 5 PV (M)111.25117.04123.07
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,443.253,622.553,809.24
Equity Value (M)4,014.474,211.364,416.13
Shares Outstanding (M)120.59120.59120.59
Fair Value$33.29$34.92$36.62
Upside / Downside4.03%9.13%14.44%

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