Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Jiahe Foods Industry Co., Ltd. (605300.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.45 - $0.64$0.54
Multi-Stage$0.78 - $0.85$0.81
Blended Fair Value$0.68
Current Price$11.88
Upside-94.31%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS754.05%0.00%0.260.090.120.000.000.000.011.700.460.00
YoY Growth--193.97%-22.92%0.00%-100.00%13,243.33%-99.89%-99.70%271.10%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.85%0.63%0.61%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.03%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)27.28
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)26.99
(=) Cash Retained (M)0.29
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)5.463.412.05
Cash Retained (M)0.290.290.29
(-) Cash Required (M)-5.46-3.41-2.05
(=) Excess Retained (M)-5.16-3.12-1.75
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)421.36421.36421.36
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.01-0.010.00
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.01-0.010.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.050.060.06
WACC / Discount Rate9.40%9.40%9.40%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$0.45$0.54$0.64
Upside / Downside-96.25%-95.46%-94.64%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)27.2827.0126.7426.4726.2125.9526.72
Payout Ratio98.92%97.14%95.35%93.57%91.78%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)26.9926.2425.5024.7724.0523.3524.72

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.40%9.40%9.40%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)23.7423.9824.22
Year 2 PV (M)20.8721.3021.74
Year 3 PV (M)18.3518.9219.50
Year 4 PV (M)16.1216.7917.48
Year 5 PV (M)14.1614.9015.67
PV of Terminal Value (M)234.11246.30258.99
Equity Value (M)327.36342.19357.60
Shares Outstanding (M)421.36421.36421.36
Fair Value$0.78$0.81$0.85
Upside / Downside-93.46%-93.16%-92.86%

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