Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Xinya Electronic Co., Ltd. (605277.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$112.48 - $132.52$124.19
Multi-Stage$74.73 - $82.01$78.30
Blended Fair Value$101.25
Current Price$25.75
Upside293.20%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS31.10%0.00%0.250.200.430.130.000.060.160.100.060.00
YoY Growth--20.19%-52.72%240.79%2,563.77%-92.49%-59.97%66.67%62.33%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.39%1.45%3.67%1.05%0.05%0.59%1.48%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)210.41
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)67.56
(=) Cash Retained (M)142.86
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)42.0826.3015.78
Cash Retained (M)142.86142.86142.86
(-) Cash Required (M)-42.08-26.30-15.78
(=) Excess Retained (M)100.77116.55127.07
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)315.77315.77315.77
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.320.370.40
LTM Dividend per Share0.210.210.21
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.320.370.40
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.530.580.62
WACC / Discount Rate2.79%2.79%2.79%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$112.48$124.19$132.52
Upside / Downside336.82%382.30%414.65%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)210.41224.09238.66254.17270.69288.29296.93
Payout Ratio32.11%43.69%55.26%66.84%78.42%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)67.5697.90131.89169.90212.28259.46274.66

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate2.79%2.79%2.79%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)94.3495.2496.13
Year 2 PV (M)122.49124.82127.18
Year 3 PV (M)152.06156.42160.87
Year 4 PV (M)183.10190.14197.38
Year 5 PV (M)215.66226.08236.89
PV of Terminal Value (M)22,830.3023,933.0125,077.93
Equity Value (M)23,597.9524,725.7125,896.38
Shares Outstanding (M)315.77315.77315.77
Fair Value$74.73$78.30$82.01
Upside / Downside190.22%204.09%218.49%

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