Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Shanghai Yanpu Metal Products Co.,Ltd (605128.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$156.26 - $184.10$172.53
Multi-Stage$124.57 - $136.71$130.53
Blended Fair Value$151.53
Current Price$44.38
Upside241.44%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS54.09%0.00%0.210.070.050.300.010.020.130.280.380.05
YoY Growth--197.01%36.28%-82.62%2,690.67%-55.75%-80.60%-55.21%-25.99%597.53%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.77%0.33%0.28%2.37%0.08%0.16%0.83%1.84%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)155.13
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)58.35
(=) Cash Retained (M)96.78
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)31.0319.3911.63
Cash Retained (M)96.7896.7896.78
(-) Cash Required (M)-31.03-19.39-11.63
(=) Excess Retained (M)65.7577.3985.15
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)167.58167.58167.58
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.390.460.51
LTM Dividend per Share0.350.350.35
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.390.460.51
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.740.810.86
WACC / Discount Rate-0.90%-0.90%-0.90%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$156.26$172.53$184.10
Upside / Downside252.10%288.76%314.83%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)155.13165.21175.95187.39199.57212.54218.92
Payout Ratio37.61%48.09%58.57%69.05%79.52%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)58.3579.45103.05129.38158.70191.29202.50

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-0.90%-0.90%-0.90%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)79.4280.1880.93
Year 2 PV (M)102.98104.94106.92
Year 3 PV (M)129.25132.96136.74
Year 4 PV (M)158.48164.58170.84
Year 5 PV (M)190.95200.18209.75
PV of Terminal Value (M)20,214.4621,190.8322,204.56
Equity Value (M)20,875.5421,873.6522,909.74
Shares Outstanding (M)167.58167.58167.58
Fair Value$124.57$130.53$136.71
Upside / Downside180.70%194.12%208.05%

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