Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Hunan Aihua Group Co., Ltd (603989.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$90.47 - $106.66$99.92
Multi-Stage$62.70 - $69.03$65.80
Blended Fair Value$82.86
Current Price$18.61
Upside345.26%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.28%3.87%0.360.350.330.330.300.310.610.590.530.66
YoY Growth--3.98%4.86%-0.21%8.93%-0.85%-49.98%3.06%12.69%-20.25%168.57%
Dividend Yield--2.32%1.96%1.27%1.22%1.03%1.35%2.88%1.96%1.87%3.11%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)221.19
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)69.52
(=) Cash Retained (M)151.67
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)44.2427.6516.59
Cash Retained (M)151.67151.67151.67
(-) Cash Required (M)-44.24-27.65-16.59
(=) Excess Retained (M)107.43124.02135.08
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)398.50398.50398.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.270.310.34
LTM Dividend per Share0.170.170.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.270.310.34
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.440.490.51
WACC / Discount Rate-0.89%-0.89%-0.89%
Growth Rate1.87%2.87%3.87%
Fair Value$90.47$99.92$106.66
Upside / Downside386.14%436.93%473.13%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)221.19227.54234.08240.80247.72254.84262.48
Payout Ratio31.43%43.14%54.86%66.57%78.29%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)69.5298.17128.41160.31193.93229.36242.80

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-0.89%-0.89%-0.89%
Growth Rate1.87%2.87%3.87%
Year 1 PV (M)98.0999.05100.02
Year 2 PV (M)128.20130.73133.28
Year 3 PV (M)159.90164.66169.51
Year 4 PV (M)193.28200.98208.91
Year 5 PV (M)228.39239.82251.71
PV of Terminal Value (M)24,177.7225,387.9026,646.07
Equity Value (M)24,985.5826,223.1427,509.49
Shares Outstanding (M)398.50398.50398.50
Fair Value$62.70$65.80$69.03
Upside / Downside236.91%253.59%270.94%

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