Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shanghai Kindly Enterprise Development Group Co.,LTD. (603987.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Instruments & SuppliesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$25.42 - $111.00$60.96
Multi-Stage$13.67 - $14.96$14.30
Blended Fair Value$37.63
Current Price$9.02
Upside317.21%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS7.26%14.96%0.220.280.310.060.200.150.110.080.360.08
YoY Growth---23.48%-9.28%450.17%-71.76%31.64%39.21%41.35%-78.45%375.42%40.92%
Dividend Yield--2.94%3.68%1.99%0.29%0.98%1.39%1.38%0.90%2.65%1.16%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)243.83
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)83.72
(=) Cash Retained (M)160.10
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)48.7730.4818.29
Cash Retained (M)160.10160.10160.10
(-) Cash Required (M)-48.77-30.48-18.29
(=) Excess Retained (M)111.34129.63141.82
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)435.86435.86435.86
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.260.300.33
LTM Dividend per Share0.190.190.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.260.300.33
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.450.490.52
WACC / Discount Rate7.11%7.11%7.11%
Growth Rate5.26%6.26%7.26%
Fair Value$25.42$60.96$111.00
Upside / Downside181.81%575.88%1,130.64%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)243.83259.09275.30292.53310.83330.29340.20
Payout Ratio34.34%45.47%56.60%67.73%78.87%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)83.72117.81155.83198.14245.15297.26314.68

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.11%7.11%7.11%
Growth Rate5.26%6.26%7.26%
Year 1 PV (M)108.95109.98111.02
Year 2 PV (M)133.28135.82138.39
Year 3 PV (M)156.73161.24165.84
Year 4 PV (M)179.33186.25193.36
Year 5 PV (M)201.11210.84220.95
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,178.235,428.925,689.24
Equity Value (M)5,957.626,233.066,518.79
Shares Outstanding (M)435.86435.86435.86
Fair Value$13.67$14.30$14.96
Upside / Downside51.54%58.54%65.81%

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