Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Changzhou Shenli Electrical Machine Incorporated Company (603819.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$19.51 - $22.99$21.55
Multi-Stage$12.47 - $13.70$13.07
Blended Fair Value$17.31
Current Price$11.55
Upside49.87%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.89%21.13%0.360.110.170.150.270.270.110.070.050.05
YoY Growth--227.76%-36.68%18.42%-46.75%1.71%149.11%54.86%41.37%-0.56%-5.77%
Dividend Yield--2.41%0.83%1.14%1.18%2.84%3.05%1.08%0.81%0.25%0.71%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)26.33
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)17.86
(=) Cash Retained (M)8.47
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)5.273.291.97
Cash Retained (M)8.478.478.47
(-) Cash Required (M)-5.27-3.29-1.97
(=) Excess Retained (M)3.205.186.50
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)224.28224.28224.28
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.010.020.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.080.080.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.010.020.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.090.100.11
WACC / Discount Rate2.48%2.48%2.48%
Growth Rate3.89%4.89%5.89%
Fair Value$19.51$21.55$22.99
Upside / Downside68.92%86.54%99.08%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)26.3327.6128.9630.3831.8633.4234.42
Payout Ratio67.83%72.26%76.70%81.13%85.57%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)17.8619.9522.2124.6427.2630.0831.84

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate2.48%2.48%2.48%
Growth Rate3.89%4.89%5.89%
Year 1 PV (M)19.2919.4719.66
Year 2 PV (M)20.7521.1521.56
Year 3 PV (M)22.2522.9023.56
Year 4 PV (M)23.7924.7225.68
Year 5 PV (M)25.3726.6127.91
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,685.602,817.372,954.26
Equity Value (M)2,797.052,932.233,072.62
Shares Outstanding (M)224.28224.28224.28
Fair Value$12.47$13.07$13.70
Upside / Downside7.98%13.20%18.61%

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