Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Jiangsu New Energy Development Co., Ltd. (603693.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Renewable UtilitiesSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$27.44 - $85.24$79.88
Multi-Stage$12.63 - $13.82$13.22
Blended Fair Value$46.55
Current Price$12.85
Upside262.24%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.13%4.23%0.340.320.270.250.250.280.270.250.100.11
YoY Growth--3.88%18.87%8.17%0.32%-8.62%1.18%7.77%144.50%-4.37%-51.51%
Dividend Yield--2.72%3.11%2.21%1.71%2.52%4.14%2.18%2.53%1.04%1.08%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)383.25
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)232.29
(=) Cash Retained (M)150.96
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)76.6547.9128.74
Cash Retained (M)150.96150.96150.96
(-) Cash Required (M)-76.65-47.91-28.74
(=) Excess Retained (M)74.31103.05122.21
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)891.48891.48891.48
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.080.120.14
LTM Dividend per Share0.260.260.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.080.120.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.340.380.40
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate5.18%6.18%7.18%
Fair Value$27.44$79.88$85.24
Upside / Downside113.58%521.63%563.34%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)383.25406.92432.05458.73487.06517.13532.65
Payout Ratio60.61%66.49%72.37%78.24%84.12%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)232.29270.55312.66358.93409.72465.42492.70

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate5.18%6.18%7.18%
Year 1 PV (M)251.66254.06256.45
Year 2 PV (M)270.52275.69280.91
Year 3 PV (M)288.87297.19305.67
Year 4 PV (M)306.73318.56330.74
Year 5 PV (M)324.10339.80356.11
PV of Terminal Value (M)9,820.9110,296.7610,790.87
Equity Value (M)11,262.8011,782.0712,320.74
Shares Outstanding (M)891.48891.48891.48
Fair Value$12.63$13.22$13.82
Upside / Downside-1.68%2.85%7.55%

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