Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

FULONGMA Group Co.,Ltd. (603686.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - Pollution & Treatment ControlsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$12.54 - $68.13$24.45
Multi-Stage$7.33 - $8.00$7.66
Blended Fair Value$16.06
Current Price$21.86
Upside-26.54%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS9.06%15.25%0.300.280.280.400.220.190.190.150.110.11
YoY Growth--4.55%0.43%-29.78%85.60%12.75%-1.15%27.16%33.19%2.86%55.58%
Dividend Yield--1.97%3.15%2.85%3.61%1.17%1.39%1.81%0.89%0.46%0.52%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)143.33
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)82.72
(=) Cash Retained (M)60.61
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)28.6717.9210.75
Cash Retained (M)60.6160.6160.61
(-) Cash Required (M)-28.67-17.92-10.75
(=) Excess Retained (M)31.9442.6949.86
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)418.39418.39418.39
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.080.100.12
LTM Dividend per Share0.200.200.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.080.100.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.270.300.32
WACC / Discount Rate7.81%7.81%7.81%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$12.54$24.45$68.13
Upside / Downside-42.63%11.87%211.66%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)143.33152.64162.57173.13184.39196.37202.26
Payout Ratio57.71%64.17%70.63%77.09%83.54%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)82.7297.95114.82133.46154.04176.73187.09

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.81%7.81%7.81%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)90.0190.8691.72
Year 2 PV (M)96.9598.79100.66
Year 3 PV (M)103.55106.52109.55
Year 4 PV (M)109.82114.04118.39
Year 5 PV (M)115.78121.37127.18
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,550.542,673.732,801.64
Equity Value (M)3,066.653,205.333,349.13
Shares Outstanding (M)418.39418.39418.39
Fair Value$7.33$7.66$8.00
Upside / Downside-66.47%-64.95%-63.38%

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