Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Red Avenue New Materials Group Co., Ltd. (603650.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$123.60 - $191.17$179.15
Multi-Stage$32.37 - $35.39$33.85
Blended Fair Value$106.50
Current Price$44.19
Upside141.01%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS20.86%18.75%0.980.210.210.420.410.380.050.290.290.48
YoY Growth--371.92%-1.05%-49.65%2.30%7.22%728.43%-84.09%-1.20%-38.63%170.51%
Dividend Yield--3.04%0.78%0.53%1.16%1.19%2.50%0.17%1.63%1.65%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)572.27
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)514.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)57.67
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)114.4571.5342.92
Cash Retained (M)57.6757.6757.67
(-) Cash Required (M)-114.45-71.53-42.92
(=) Excess Retained (M)-56.78-13.8614.75
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)595.34595.34595.34
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.10-0.020.02
LTM Dividend per Share0.860.860.86
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.10-0.020.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.770.840.89
WACC / Discount Rate6.16%6.16%6.16%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$123.60$179.15$191.17
Upside / Downside179.70%305.41%332.60%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)572.27609.47649.08691.27736.20784.06807.58
Payout Ratio89.92%89.94%89.95%89.97%89.98%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)514.60548.14583.87621.93662.47705.65747.01

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.16%6.16%6.16%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)511.51516.35521.20
Year 2 PV (M)508.43518.11527.89
Year 3 PV (M)505.37519.88534.66
Year 4 PV (M)502.34521.65541.52
Year 5 PV (M)499.31523.43548.47
PV of Terminal Value (M)16,746.4217,555.2818,395.10
Equity Value (M)19,273.3820,154.7221,068.85
Shares Outstanding (M)595.34595.34595.34
Fair Value$32.37$33.85$35.39
Upside / Downside-26.74%-23.39%-19.92%

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