Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Wellhope Foods Co., Ltd. (603609.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural Farm ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.67 - $4.67$3.52
Multi-Stage$5.09 - $5.59$5.34
Blended Fair Value$4.43
Current Price$7.98
Upside-44.49%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-17.42%2.17%0.110.240.130.330.310.280.170.160.140.08
YoY Growth---53.95%82.58%-61.18%6.62%10.39%67.31%2.85%18.12%72.67%-8.07%
Dividend Yield--1.41%3.24%1.08%3.47%2.60%2.22%1.54%1.76%1.16%0.65%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)182.45
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)137.27
(=) Cash Retained (M)45.19
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)36.4922.8113.68
Cash Retained (M)45.1945.1945.19
(-) Cash Required (M)-36.49-22.81-13.68
(=) Excess Retained (M)8.7022.3831.50
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)892.40892.40892.40
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.010.030.04
LTM Dividend per Share0.150.150.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.010.030.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.160.180.19
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate0.17%1.17%2.17%
Fair Value$2.67$3.52$4.67
Upside / Downside-66.55%-55.86%-41.48%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)182.45184.59186.75188.93191.14193.38199.18
Payout Ratio75.23%78.19%81.14%84.09%87.05%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)137.27144.32151.53158.88166.38174.04184.24

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate0.17%1.17%2.17%
Year 1 PV (M)134.42135.76137.10
Year 2 PV (M)131.44134.08136.74
Year 3 PV (M)128.36132.24136.20
Year 4 PV (M)125.20130.27135.50
Year 5 PV (M)121.97128.18134.64
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,902.954,101.694,308.45
Equity Value (M)4,544.334,762.224,988.64
Shares Outstanding (M)892.40892.40892.40
Fair Value$5.09$5.34$5.59
Upside / Downside-36.19%-33.13%-29.95%

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