Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Jiangsu King's Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co., Ltd. (603369.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Beverages - Wineries & DistilleriesSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$257.02 - $458.62$429.79
Multi-Stage$75.48 - $82.48$78.92
Blended Fair Value$254.35
Current Price$39.30
Upside547.21%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS24.67%19.67%1.000.740.590.450.420.330.250.190.170.16
YoY Growth--35.14%25.48%30.04%8.63%25.73%31.39%31.47%16.53%5.13%-5.46%
Dividend Yield--1.89%1.24%0.91%1.08%0.85%1.18%0.88%1.22%1.25%2.35%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,875.19
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,738.18
(=) Cash Retained (M)137.01
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)575.04359.40215.64
Cash Retained (M)137.01137.01137.01
(-) Cash Required (M)-575.04-359.40-215.64
(=) Excess Retained (M)-438.03-222.39-78.63
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,246.801,246.801,246.80
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.35-0.18-0.06
LTM Dividend per Share2.202.202.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.35-0.18-0.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.842.022.13
WACC / Discount Rate6.26%6.26%6.26%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$257.02$429.79$458.62
Upside / Downside553.99%993.62%1,066.96%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,875.193,062.083,261.113,473.083,698.833,939.264,057.44
Payout Ratio95.23%94.19%93.14%92.09%91.05%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,738.182,884.103,037.433,198.503,367.683,545.333,753.13

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.26%6.26%6.26%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)2,688.782,714.272,739.75
Year 2 PV (M)2,639.942,690.232,740.98
Year 3 PV (M)2,591.672,666.062,741.87
Year 4 PV (M)2,543.942,641.782,742.40
Year 5 PV (M)2,496.772,617.362,742.57
PV of Terminal Value (M)81,145.0385,064.3689,133.70
Equity Value (M)94,106.1398,394.06102,841.28
Shares Outstanding (M)1,246.801,246.801,246.80
Fair Value$75.48$78.92$82.48
Upside / Downside92.06%100.81%109.88%

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