Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Xinfengming Group Co., Ltd. (603225.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$70.82 - $142.56$133.60
Multi-Stage$22.11 - $24.20$23.14
Blended Fair Value$78.37
Current Price$16.24
Upside382.55%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS50.37%20.90%0.790.530.230.120.120.100.110.020.010.17
YoY Growth--48.95%132.66%87.18%-0.22%18.80%-2.15%496.61%150.00%-95.90%45.06%
Dividend Yield--6.69%3.59%2.11%1.06%0.74%1.00%0.71%0.10%0.04%0.88%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,064.07
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)510.94
(=) Cash Retained (M)553.13
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)212.81133.0179.81
Cash Retained (M)553.13553.13553.13
(-) Cash Required (M)-212.81-133.01-79.81
(=) Excess Retained (M)340.32420.12473.33
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,484.431,484.431,484.43
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.230.280.32
LTM Dividend per Share0.340.340.34
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.230.280.32
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.570.630.66
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$70.82$133.60$142.56
Upside / Downside336.08%722.64%777.82%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,064.071,133.241,206.901,285.351,368.891,457.871,501.61
Payout Ratio48.02%56.41%64.81%73.21%81.60%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)510.94639.30782.20940.961,117.061,312.081,388.99

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)595.46601.11606.75
Year 2 PV (M)678.60691.52704.57
Year 3 PV (M)760.35782.18804.42
Year 4 PV (M)840.76873.09906.35
Year 5 PV (M)919.82964.241,010.37
PV of Terminal Value (M)29,029.3830,431.5131,887.30
Equity Value (M)32,824.3634,343.6535,919.76
Shares Outstanding (M)1,484.431,484.431,484.43
Fair Value$22.11$23.14$24.20
Upside / Downside36.16%42.46%49.00%

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