Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shanghai Aiyingshi Co.,Ltd (603214.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty RetailSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$40.33 - $159.12$110.57
Multi-Stage$19.56 - $21.39$20.45
Blended Fair Value$65.51
Current Price$17.99
Upside264.17%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS12.57%21.05%0.510.370.290.390.390.280.210.250.120.12
YoY Growth--36.87%27.78%-25.10%0.09%37.90%37.03%-16.75%111.03%-2.19%58.72%
Dividend Yield--2.55%2.85%1.61%1.90%1.70%0.95%0.72%1.21%0.57%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)110.85
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)45.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)65.25
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)22.1713.868.31
Cash Retained (M)65.2565.2565.25
(-) Cash Required (M)-22.17-13.86-8.31
(=) Excess Retained (M)43.0851.4056.94
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)138.55138.55138.55
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.310.370.41
LTM Dividend per Share0.330.330.33
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.310.370.41
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.640.700.74
WACC / Discount Rate7.17%7.17%7.17%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$40.33$110.57$159.12
Upside / Downside124.19%514.65%784.47%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)110.85118.06125.73133.90142.61151.88156.43
Payout Ratio41.13%50.91%60.68%70.45%80.23%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)45.6060.1076.2994.34114.41136.69144.70

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.17%7.17%7.17%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)55.5556.0856.60
Year 2 PV (M)65.1866.4267.68
Year 3 PV (M)74.5076.6378.81
Year 4 PV (M)83.5086.7290.02
Year 5 PV (M)92.2196.67101.29
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,338.572,451.522,568.80
Equity Value (M)2,709.512,834.042,963.20
Shares Outstanding (M)138.55138.55138.55
Fair Value$19.56$20.45$21.39
Upside / Downside8.71%13.70%18.88%

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