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Definitive Analysis

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Chongqing Chuanyi Automation Co., Ltd. (603100.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$115.03 - $281.73$264.02
Multi-Stage$41.19 - $45.07$43.09
Blended Fair Value$153.56
Current Price$23.93
Upside541.69%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS20.47%21.26%0.630.520.520.280.220.250.200.150.100.10
YoY Growth--21.95%0.15%82.34%28.00%-11.00%24.11%29.59%57.33%0.00%7.12%
Dividend Yield--2.95%2.31%1.79%2.57%1.94%3.77%2.34%1.94%0.91%0.88%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)681.64
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)291.56
(=) Cash Retained (M)390.09
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)136.3385.2151.12
Cash Retained (M)390.09390.09390.09
(-) Cash Required (M)-136.33-85.21-51.12
(=) Excess Retained (M)253.76304.88338.96
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)481.18481.18481.18
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.530.630.70
LTM Dividend per Share0.610.610.61
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.530.630.70
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.131.241.31
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$115.03$264.02$281.73
Upside / Downside380.69%1,003.29%1,077.29%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)681.64725.95773.14823.39876.91933.91961.93
Payout Ratio42.77%52.22%61.66%71.11%80.55%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)291.56379.08476.74585.51706.39840.52889.78

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)352.47355.81359.15
Year 2 PV (M)412.16420.01427.94
Year 3 PV (M)470.66484.17497.94
Year 4 PV (M)527.98548.28569.17
Year 5 PV (M)584.13612.35641.64
PV of Terminal Value (M)17,471.0818,314.9419,191.10
Equity Value (M)19,818.4920,735.5721,686.94
Shares Outstanding (M)481.18481.18481.18
Fair Value$41.19$43.09$45.07
Upside / Downside72.11%80.08%88.34%

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