Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Qianhe Condiment and Food Co., Ltd. (603027.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7.36 - $15.95$10.53
Multi-Stage$5.21 - $5.70$5.45
Blended Fair Value$7.99
Current Price$8.79
Upside-9.09%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS47.64%38.34%0.470.090.060.060.060.070.040.030.020.01
YoY Growth--395.17%54.70%8.83%1.68%-17.25%57.57%45.83%82.58%134.37%-62.77%
Dividend Yield--5.45%0.71%0.33%0.50%0.28%0.67%0.63%0.58%0.33%0.18%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)422.27
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)420.27
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)84.4552.7831.67
Cash Retained (M)420.27420.27420.27
(-) Cash Required (M)-84.45-52.78-31.67
(=) Excess Retained (M)335.81367.48388.60
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,103.611,103.611,103.61
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.300.330.35
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.300.330.35
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.310.330.35
WACC / Discount Rate9.89%9.89%9.89%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$7.36$10.53$15.95
Upside / Downside-16.24%19.80%81.41%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)422.27449.72478.95510.08543.24578.55595.91
Payout Ratio0.47%18.38%36.28%54.19%72.09%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2.0082.66173.79276.41391.65520.70551.21

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.89%9.89%9.89%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)74.5175.2275.93
Year 2 PV (M)141.23143.92146.64
Year 3 PV (M)202.51208.32214.24
Year 4 PV (M)258.67268.61278.84
Year 5 PV (M)310.02324.99340.54
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,766.034,996.235,235.24
Equity Value (M)5,752.976,017.306,291.44
Shares Outstanding (M)1,103.611,103.611,103.61
Fair Value$5.21$5.45$5.70
Upside / Downside-40.70%-37.97%-35.14%

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