Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Zhejiang Dragon Technology Co., Ltd. (603004.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$119.74 - $141.21$132.28
Multi-Stage$248.18 - $273.78$260.73
Blended Fair Value$196.50
Current Price$24.04
Upside717.40%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS53.50%0.00%0.220.000.020.020.010.030.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--5,930.37%-75.75%-4.23%12.46%-45.90%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.06%0.02%0.09%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)177.89
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)56.45
(=) Cash Retained (M)121.44
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)35.5822.2413.34
Cash Retained (M)121.44121.44121.44
(-) Cash Required (M)-35.58-22.24-13.34
(=) Excess Retained (M)85.8699.21108.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)238.36238.36238.36
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.360.420.45
LTM Dividend per Share0.240.240.24
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.360.420.45
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.600.650.69
WACC / Discount Rate-21.52%-21.52%-21.52%
Growth Rate0.28%1.28%2.28%
Fair Value$119.74$132.28$141.21
Upside / Downside398.10%450.23%487.42%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)177.89180.17182.47184.80187.16189.55195.23
Payout Ratio31.73%43.39%55.04%66.69%78.35%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)56.4578.17100.43123.25146.63170.59180.59

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-21.52%-21.52%-21.52%
Growth Rate0.28%1.28%2.28%
Year 1 PV (M)98.6299.60100.59
Year 2 PV (M)159.87163.07166.31
Year 3 PV (M)247.52255.00262.63
Year 4 PV (M)371.55386.59402.09
Year 5 PV (M)545.37573.11601.97
PV of Terminal Value (M)57,733.8560,670.5663,725.57
Equity Value (M)59,156.7962,147.9465,259.16
Shares Outstanding (M)238.36238.36238.36
Fair Value$248.18$260.73$273.78
Upside / Downside932.38%984.58%1,038.87%

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