Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Jiangsu Phoenix Publishing & Media Corporation Limited (601928.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: PublishingSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$14.46 - $30.76$20.55
Multi-Stage$10.31 - $11.27$10.78
Blended Fair Value$15.67
Current Price$10.52
Upside48.91%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS10.86%9.08%0.510.500.510.400.300.300.150.150.100.20
YoY Growth--0.77%-0.64%25.03%34.66%-0.67%100.69%-2.62%48.37%-49.13%-3.42%
Dividend Yield--4.61%4.46%4.87%5.31%4.51%4.64%1.71%2.09%1.04%1.76%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,955.44
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)13.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,941.84
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)391.09244.43146.66
Cash Retained (M)1,941.841,941.841,941.84
(-) Cash Required (M)-391.09-244.43-146.66
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,550.751,697.411,795.18
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,544.902,544.902,544.90
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.610.670.71
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.610.670.71
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.610.670.71
WACC / Discount Rate9.98%9.98%9.98%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$14.46$20.55$30.76
Upside / Downside37.48%95.36%192.39%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,955.442,082.542,217.912,362.072,515.602,679.122,759.49
Payout Ratio0.70%18.56%36.42%54.28%72.14%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)13.60386.45807.701,282.091,814.742,411.212,552.53

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.98%9.98%9.98%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)348.07351.37354.67
Year 2 PV (M)655.24667.72680.32
Year 3 PV (M)936.78963.68991.08
Year 4 PV (M)1,194.281,240.211,287.45
Year 5 PV (M)1,429.231,498.261,569.94
PV of Terminal Value (M)21,663.9922,710.3723,796.80
Equity Value (M)26,227.6027,431.6128,680.25
Shares Outstanding (M)2,544.902,544.902,544.90
Fair Value$10.31$10.78$11.27
Upside / Downside-2.03%2.46%7.13%

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