Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Bank of Chengdu Co., Ltd. (601838.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$532.34 - $627.19$587.77
Multi-Stage$155.13 - $170.15$162.50
Blended Fair Value$375.13
Current Price$17.25
Upside2,074.69%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS25.29%17.95%1.110.960.720.580.540.360.300.250.300.22
YoY Growth--16.38%32.34%25.15%7.12%49.52%19.97%19.76%-15.32%32.43%4.74%
Dividend Yield--6.48%6.98%5.34%3.85%4.79%4.80%3.30%2.27%2.95%2.23%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)13,312.72
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)469.84
(=) Cash Retained (M)12,842.89
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,662.541,664.09998.45
Cash Retained (M)12,842.8912,842.8912,842.89
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,662.54-1,664.09-998.45
(=) Excess Retained (M)10,180.3411,178.8011,844.43
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,221.324,221.324,221.32
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.412.652.81
LTM Dividend per Share0.110.110.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.412.652.81
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.522.762.92
WACC / Discount Rate5.09%5.09%5.09%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$532.34$587.77$627.19
Upside / Downside2,986.04%3,307.36%3,535.88%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)13,312.7214,178.0515,099.6216,081.1017,126.3718,239.5918,786.77
Payout Ratio3.53%20.82%38.12%55.41%72.71%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)469.842,952.355,755.608,910.8112,451.8716,415.6317,377.77

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.09%5.09%5.09%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)2,782.862,809.242,835.62
Year 2 PV (M)5,113.745,211.155,309.47
Year 3 PV (M)7,462.587,676.817,895.09
Year 4 PV (M)9,829.4810,207.5010,596.31
Year 5 PV (M)12,214.5512,804.5213,417.06
PV of Terminal Value (M)617,433.56647,255.84678,219.48
Equity Value (M)654,836.78685,965.04718,273.03
Shares Outstanding (M)4,221.324,221.324,221.32
Fair Value$155.13$162.50$170.15
Upside / Downside799.28%842.03%886.40%

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