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Bank of Xi'an Co.,Ltd. (600928.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.50 - $8.45$6.87
Multi-Stage$10.74 - $11.82$11.27
Blended Fair Value$9.07
Current Price$3.89
Upside133.21%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-14.44%0.45%0.080.200.240.660.240.180.090.080.130.10
YoY Growth---57.66%-17.09%-63.23%171.33%30.88%111.70%12.85%-39.04%31.36%19.26%
Dividend Yield--2.42%5.82%7.08%16.63%4.64%3.36%0.70%1.15%1.88%1.43%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,664.69
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)593.33
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,071.36
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)532.94333.09199.85
Cash Retained (M)2,071.362,071.362,071.36
(-) Cash Required (M)-532.94-333.09-199.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,538.421,738.281,871.51
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,447.204,447.204,447.20
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.350.390.42
LTM Dividend per Share0.130.130.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.350.390.42
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.480.520.55
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate-1.55%-0.55%0.45%
Fair Value$5.50$6.87$8.45
Upside / Downside41.30%76.70%117.33%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,664.692,650.022,635.422,620.902,606.472,592.112,669.87
Payout Ratio22.27%35.81%49.36%62.91%76.45%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)593.33949.051,300.841,648.721,992.732,332.902,469.63

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate-1.55%-0.55%0.45%
Year 1 PV (M)877.76886.68895.60
Year 2 PV (M)1,112.751,135.471,158.42
Year 3 PV (M)1,304.391,344.551,385.51
Year 4 PV (M)1,458.131,518.281,580.28
Year 5 PV (M)1,578.821,660.651,745.83
PV of Terminal Value (M)41,426.3843,573.5145,808.76
Equity Value (M)47,758.2450,119.1452,574.40
Shares Outstanding (M)4,447.204,447.204,447.20
Fair Value$10.74$11.27$11.82
Upside / Downside176.07%189.71%203.91%

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