Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Chongqing Gas Group Corporation Ltd. (600917.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated GasSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.22 - $29.59$9.88
Multi-Stage$4.30 - $4.72$4.51
Blended Fair Value$7.20
Current Price$5.70
Upside26.23%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS10.77%-3.29%0.120.140.140.080.080.070.120.120.140.13
YoY Growth---10.50%-0.23%61.71%2.73%12.43%-38.46%-2.03%-15.37%13.12%-25.62%
Dividend Yield--2.12%2.18%1.81%1.18%0.71%1.15%1.58%1.54%1.18%1.14%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)257.97
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)47.62
(=) Cash Retained (M)210.35
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)51.5932.2519.35
Cash Retained (M)210.35210.35210.35
(-) Cash Required (M)-51.59-32.25-19.35
(=) Excess Retained (M)158.75178.10191.00
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,708.441,708.441,708.44
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.090.100.11
LTM Dividend per Share0.030.030.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.090.100.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.120.130.14
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate3.91%4.91%5.91%
Fair Value$5.22$9.88$29.59
Upside / Downside-8.34%73.40%419.04%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)257.97270.64283.93297.87312.49327.84337.67
Payout Ratio18.46%32.77%47.08%61.38%75.69%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)47.6288.68133.66182.84236.53295.05312.35

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate3.91%4.91%5.91%
Year 1 PV (M)82.6283.4284.21
Year 2 PV (M)116.02118.26120.52
Year 3 PV (M)147.86152.17156.56
Year 4 PV (M)178.20185.16192.32
Year 5 PV (M)207.10217.26227.81
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,618.406,943.067,280.33
Equity Value (M)7,350.207,699.328,061.76
Shares Outstanding (M)1,708.441,708.441,708.44
Fair Value$4.30$4.51$4.72
Upside / Downside-24.52%-20.94%-17.21%

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