Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Harbin Hatou Investment Co.,Ltd (600864.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated ElectricSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.33 - $3.43$2.86
Multi-Stage$6.05 - $6.68$6.36
Blended Fair Value$4.61
Current Price$7.35
Upside-37.27%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-10.41%8.03%0.160.170.280.250.340.280.500.230.150.11
YoY Growth---6.71%-39.43%15.44%-28.09%23.07%-44.65%115.24%51.59%36.26%52.40%
Dividend Yield--2.64%3.23%5.60%4.43%5.66%4.29%6.28%3.63%1.53%0.88%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)620.82
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)185.06
(=) Cash Retained (M)435.76
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)124.1677.6046.56
Cash Retained (M)435.76435.76435.76
(-) Cash Required (M)-124.16-77.60-46.56
(=) Excess Retained (M)311.60358.16389.20
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,023.752,023.752,023.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.150.180.19
LTM Dividend per Share0.090.090.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.150.180.19
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.250.270.28
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate-3.78%-2.78%-1.78%
Fair Value$2.33$2.86$3.43
Upside / Downside-68.24%-61.05%-53.28%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)620.82603.54586.73570.39554.51539.07555.24
Payout Ratio29.81%41.85%53.89%65.92%77.96%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)185.06252.56316.16376.02432.30485.16513.60

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate-3.78%-2.78%-1.78%
Year 1 PV (M)235.08237.52239.97
Year 2 PV (M)273.91279.63285.41
Year 3 PV (M)303.22312.77322.53
Year 4 PV (M)324.48338.18352.31
Year 5 PV (M)338.94356.93375.67
PV of Terminal Value (M)10,771.0211,342.5211,938.01
Equity Value (M)12,246.6612,867.5513,513.90
Shares Outstanding (M)2,023.752,023.752,023.75
Fair Value$6.05$6.36$6.68
Upside / Downside-17.67%-13.49%-9.15%

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