Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Shanghai Haixin Group Co., Ltd. (600851.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConglomeratesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.91 - $3.48$2.56
Multi-Stage$1.68 - $1.84$1.76
Blended Fair Value$2.16
Current Price$6.56
Upside-67.09%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.32%10.06%0.070.050.040.040.030.050.030.030.080.11
YoY Growth--43.16%21.84%1.37%14.04%-32.62%40.56%24.27%-64.49%-29.11%336.40%
Dividend Yield--1.06%0.79%0.62%0.48%0.41%0.60%0.40%0.26%0.68%0.83%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)156.25
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)23.66
(=) Cash Retained (M)132.59
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)31.2519.5311.72
Cash Retained (M)132.59132.59132.59
(-) Cash Required (M)-31.25-19.53-11.72
(=) Excess Retained (M)101.34113.06120.87
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,206.171,206.171,206.17
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.080.090.10
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.080.090.10
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.100.110.12
WACC / Discount Rate9.98%9.98%9.98%
Growth Rate4.32%5.32%6.32%
Fair Value$1.91$2.56$3.48
Upside / Downside-70.90%-60.98%-46.99%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)156.25164.56173.32182.54192.25202.48208.56
Payout Ratio15.14%30.11%45.08%60.06%75.03%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)23.6649.5678.14109.63144.24182.23192.91

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.98%9.98%9.98%
Growth Rate4.32%5.32%6.32%
Year 1 PV (M)44.6345.0645.48
Year 2 PV (M)63.3864.6065.83
Year 3 PV (M)80.0882.4084.77
Year 4 PV (M)94.8998.58102.38
Year 5 PV (M)107.96113.23118.71
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,636.431,716.381,799.43
Equity Value (M)2,027.362,120.252,216.60
Shares Outstanding (M)1,206.171,206.171,206.17
Fair Value$1.68$1.76$1.84
Upside / Downside-74.38%-73.20%-71.99%

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