Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Qinghai Jinrui Mineral Development Co., Ltd (600714.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.89 - $8.62$5.60
Multi-Stage$2.92 - $3.18$3.05
Blended Fair Value$4.33
Current Price$11.82
Upside-63.40%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS110.96%0.13%0.100.000.100.000.000.000.000.020.040.09
YoY Growth--0.00%-100.00%0.00%-100.00%-98.68%0.00%-100.00%-53.99%-55.42%-10.27%
Dividend Yield--0.95%0.00%1.03%0.00%0.00%0.05%0.00%0.22%0.29%0.81%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)56.66
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)30.01
(=) Cash Retained (M)26.64
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)11.337.084.25
Cash Retained (M)26.6426.6426.64
(-) Cash Required (M)-11.33-7.08-4.25
(=) Excess Retained (M)15.3119.5622.39
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)288.27288.27288.27
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.070.08
LTM Dividend per Share0.100.100.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.070.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.160.170.18
WACC / Discount Rate9.77%9.77%9.77%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$3.89$5.60$8.62
Upside / Downside-67.12%-52.59%-27.11%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)56.6660.3464.2668.4472.8977.6279.95
Payout Ratio52.98%60.38%67.79%75.19%82.60%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)30.0136.4343.5651.4660.2069.8673.96

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.77%9.77%9.77%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)32.8833.1933.50
Year 2 PV (M)35.4836.1536.83
Year 3 PV (M)37.8238.9140.01
Year 4 PV (M)39.9341.4743.05
Year 5 PV (M)41.8243.8445.94
PV of Terminal Value (M)654.05685.64718.44
Equity Value (M)841.97879.19917.77
Shares Outstanding (M)288.27288.27288.27
Fair Value$2.92$3.05$3.18
Upside / Downside-75.29%-74.20%-73.07%

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