Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Xiamen King Long Motor Group Co., Ltd. (600686.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - ManufacturersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7.52 - $14.58$10.33
Multi-Stage$6.58 - $7.17$6.87
Blended Fair Value$8.60
Current Price$11.33
Upside-24.10%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS65.60%8.71%0.280.290.290.000.020.020.080.240.140.04
YoY Growth---0.19%-1.93%5,713.35%-80.00%9.43%-73.00%-64.56%76.36%220.02%-65.73%
Dividend Yield--2.04%3.79%4.82%0.09%0.39%0.37%0.85%1.82%0.92%0.29%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)328.64
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)167.74
(=) Cash Retained (M)160.90
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)65.7341.0824.65
Cash Retained (M)160.90160.90160.90
(-) Cash Required (M)-65.73-41.08-24.65
(=) Excess Retained (M)95.17119.82136.25
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)717.05717.05717.05
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.130.170.19
LTM Dividend per Share0.230.230.23
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.130.170.19
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.370.400.42
WACC / Discount Rate9.74%9.74%9.74%
Growth Rate4.63%5.63%6.63%
Fair Value$7.52$10.33$14.58
Upside / Downside-33.62%-8.84%28.65%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)328.64347.16366.72387.39409.21432.27445.24
Payout Ratio51.04%58.83%66.62%74.42%82.21%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)167.74204.24244.33288.28336.41389.04411.85

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.74%9.74%9.74%
Growth Rate4.63%5.63%6.63%
Year 1 PV (M)184.36186.12187.89
Year 2 PV (M)199.07202.90206.75
Year 3 PV (M)212.02218.15224.41
Year 4 PV (M)223.33231.99240.90
Year 5 PV (M)233.13244.48256.28
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,663.663,842.114,027.44
Equity Value (M)4,715.564,925.755,143.66
Shares Outstanding (M)717.05717.05717.05
Fair Value$6.58$6.87$7.17
Upside / Downside-41.96%-39.37%-36.69%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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