Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Chongqing Fenghwa Group Co., Ltd. (600615.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Manufacturing - Metal FabricationSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.34 - $0.48$0.41
Multi-Stage$0.50 - $0.55$0.53
Blended Fair Value$0.47
Current Price$13.36
Upside-96.49%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.010.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--2,081.34%-78.88%50.48%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.08%0.00%0.02%0.02%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)9.91
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1.52
(=) Cash Retained (M)8.39
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1.981.240.74
Cash Retained (M)8.398.398.39
(-) Cash Required (M)-1.98-1.24-0.74
(=) Excess Retained (M)6.417.157.64
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)190.74190.74190.74
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.030.040.04
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.030.040.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.040.050.05
WACC / Discount Rate9.97%9.97%9.97%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$0.34$0.41$0.48
Upside / Downside-97.45%-96.93%-96.39%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)9.919.819.719.619.529.429.70
Payout Ratio15.34%30.28%45.21%60.14%75.07%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1.522.974.395.787.148.488.98

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.97%9.97%9.97%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)2.672.702.73
Year 2 PV (M)3.563.633.70
Year 3 PV (M)4.224.354.48
Year 4 PV (M)4.694.885.08
Year 5 PV (M)5.015.275.54
PV of Terminal Value (M)76.0780.0384.16
Equity Value (M)96.22100.87105.70
Shares Outstanding (M)190.74190.74190.74
Fair Value$0.50$0.53$0.55
Upside / Downside-96.22%-96.04%-95.85%

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