Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Jiangxi Hongcheng Environment Co.,Ltd. (600461.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated WaterSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$80.27 - $155.62$145.84
Multi-Stage$23.99 - $26.27$25.11
Blended Fair Value$85.48
Current Price$8.82
Upside869.13%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS14.74%13.15%0.400.510.490.460.290.200.120.160.170.12
YoY Growth---22.42%3.81%8.04%59.60%43.18%72.23%-29.07%-6.77%45.64%4.30%
Dividend Yield--4.29%5.32%6.84%6.16%4.09%2.94%1.76%2.61%2.30%1.62%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,200.86
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)275.88
(=) Cash Retained (M)924.98
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)240.17150.1190.06
Cash Retained (M)924.98924.98924.98
(-) Cash Required (M)-240.17-150.11-90.06
(=) Excess Retained (M)684.81774.88834.92
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,534.611,534.611,534.61
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.450.500.54
LTM Dividend per Share0.180.180.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.450.500.54
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.630.680.72
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$80.27$145.84$155.62
Upside / Downside810.07%1,553.54%1,664.45%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,200.861,278.921,362.051,450.581,544.871,645.291,694.65
Payout Ratio22.97%36.38%49.78%63.19%76.59%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)275.88465.26678.08916.611,183.291,480.761,567.55

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)433.48437.59441.70
Year 2 PV (M)588.62599.83611.15
Year 3 PV (M)741.34762.62784.30
Year 4 PV (M)891.65925.95961.22
Year 5 PV (M)1,039.601,089.811,141.95
PV of Terminal Value (M)33,120.6134,720.3436,381.31
Equity Value (M)36,815.3038,536.1440,321.62
Shares Outstanding (M)1,534.611,534.611,534.61
Fair Value$23.99$25.11$26.27
Upside / Downside172.00%184.71%197.90%

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