Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Xinjiang Qingsong Building Materials and Chemicals (Group) Co, Ltd. (600425.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Construction MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.42 - $8.25$5.07
Multi-Stage$4.50 - $4.94$4.72
Blended Fair Value$4.89
Current Price$4.43
Upside10.48%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS2.66%-3.48%0.130.140.190.060.080.120.150.160.180.22
YoY Growth---7.13%-26.78%228.40%-21.85%-34.67%-20.90%-6.05%-12.28%-17.60%14.62%
Dividend Yield--3.34%3.77%4.89%1.35%1.76%3.22%2.93%4.32%2.56%4.16%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)261.17
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)199.31
(=) Cash Retained (M)61.85
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)52.2332.6519.59
Cash Retained (M)61.8561.8561.85
(-) Cash Required (M)-52.23-32.65-19.59
(=) Excess Retained (M)9.6229.2142.27
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,600.181,600.181,600.18
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.010.020.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.120.120.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.010.020.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.130.140.15
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate2.41%3.41%4.41%
Fair Value$3.42$5.07$8.25
Upside / Downside-22.82%14.52%86.19%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)261.17270.06279.26288.77298.60308.77318.03
Payout Ratio76.32%79.05%81.79%84.53%87.26%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)199.31213.49228.40244.08260.57277.89294.18

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate2.41%3.41%4.41%
Year 1 PV (M)198.87200.81202.75
Year 2 PV (M)198.18202.07206.00
Year 3 PV (M)197.28203.11209.06
Year 4 PV (M)196.17203.95211.95
Year 5 PV (M)194.88204.59214.67
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,221.046,530.786,852.73
Equity Value (M)7,206.427,545.317,897.17
Shares Outstanding (M)1,600.181,600.181,600.18
Fair Value$4.50$4.72$4.94
Upside / Downside1.66%6.44%11.40%

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