Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Zhejiang Jiahua Energy Chemical Industry Co.,Ltd. (600273.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$76.30 - $153.63$143.97
Multi-Stage$23.53 - $25.76$24.62
Blended Fair Value$84.30
Current Price$8.42
Upside901.15%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS7.16%19.14%0.430.720.570.470.380.300.350.170.150.06
YoY Growth---41.19%26.30%22.14%24.17%25.43%-14.90%113.09%10.32%146.03%-17.15%
Dividend Yield--5.27%9.21%6.59%4.66%3.72%3.41%2.65%1.95%1.68%0.71%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,039.80
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)293.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)746.80
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)207.96129.9777.98
Cash Retained (M)746.80746.80746.80
(-) Cash Required (M)-207.96-129.97-77.98
(=) Excess Retained (M)538.84616.83668.82
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,346.061,346.061,346.06
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.400.460.50
LTM Dividend per Share0.220.220.22
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.400.460.50
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.620.680.71
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$76.30$143.97$153.63
Upside / Downside806.20%1,609.86%1,724.54%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,039.801,107.391,179.371,256.021,337.671,424.611,467.35
Payout Ratio28.18%40.54%52.91%65.27%77.64%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)293.00448.96623.97819.821,038.511,282.151,357.30

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)418.18422.14426.10
Year 2 PV (M)541.32551.63562.04
Year 3 PV (M)662.46681.48700.86
Year 4 PV (M)781.62811.68842.60
Year 5 PV (M)898.83942.24987.31
PV of Terminal Value (M)28,365.3929,735.4531,157.94
Equity Value (M)31,667.8033,144.6234,676.86
Shares Outstanding (M)1,346.061,346.061,346.06
Fair Value$23.53$24.62$25.76
Upside / Downside179.41%192.44%205.96%

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