Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Zhejiang Hisun Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. (600267.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.30 - $4.76$4.01
Multi-Stage$8.74 - $9.64$9.18
Blended Fair Value$6.59
Current Price$10.40
Upside-36.59%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-21.54%-11.52%0.130.310.330.360.400.430.470.450.440.26
YoY Growth---58.33%-6.54%-8.64%-9.53%-7.62%-7.27%2.70%2.25%67.73%-39.42%
Dividend Yield--1.42%3.89%3.09%2.48%2.73%3.05%3.94%2.91%3.41%1.93%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)546.80
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)336.23
(=) Cash Retained (M)210.57
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)109.3668.3541.01
Cash Retained (M)210.57210.57210.57
(-) Cash Required (M)-109.36-68.35-41.01
(=) Excess Retained (M)101.21142.22169.56
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,156.231,156.231,156.23
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.090.120.15
LTM Dividend per Share0.290.290.29
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.090.120.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.380.410.44
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate-4.44%-3.44%-2.44%
Fair Value$3.30$4.01$4.76
Upside / Downside-68.31%-61.46%-54.25%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)546.80528.01509.86492.33475.41459.07472.84
Payout Ratio61.49%67.19%72.89%78.60%84.30%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)336.23354.78371.66386.96400.76413.16437.38

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate-4.44%-3.44%-2.44%
Year 1 PV (M)329.58333.02336.47
Year 2 PV (M)320.73327.47334.29
Year 3 PV (M)310.20320.05330.09
Year 4 PV (M)298.45311.14324.23
Year 5 PV (M)285.83301.10317.01
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,564.829,022.429,499.38
Equity Value (M)10,109.6010,615.2011,141.48
Shares Outstanding (M)1,156.231,156.231,156.23
Fair Value$8.74$9.18$9.64
Upside / Downside-15.93%-11.72%-7.35%

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