Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Anhui Quanchai Engine Co., Ltd. (600218.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$34.23 - $40.36$37.81
Multi-Stage$25.31 - $27.87$26.57
Blended Fair Value$32.19
Current Price$9.23
Upside248.75%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS114.09%7.65%0.070.080.110.090.070.000.050.070.070.10
YoY Growth---13.12%-23.96%18.46%33.63%4,200.29%-96.51%-38.33%0.37%-27.61%197.20%
Dividend Yield--0.83%0.99%1.20%0.90%0.76%0.02%0.39%1.13%0.71%0.97%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)90.50
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)26.18
(=) Cash Retained (M)64.32
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)18.1011.316.79
Cash Retained (M)64.3264.3264.32
(-) Cash Required (M)-18.10-11.31-6.79
(=) Excess Retained (M)46.2253.0157.53
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)430.93430.93430.93
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.110.120.13
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.110.120.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.170.180.19
WACC / Discount Rate-2.18%-2.18%-2.18%
Growth Rate1.89%2.89%3.89%
Fair Value$34.23$37.81$40.36
Upside / Downside270.90%309.66%337.28%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)90.5093.1195.8098.56101.40104.33107.46
Payout Ratio28.92%41.14%53.35%65.57%77.78%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)26.1838.3051.1164.6378.8893.9099.40

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-2.18%-2.18%-2.18%
Growth Rate1.89%2.89%3.89%
Year 1 PV (M)38.7839.1639.54
Year 2 PV (M)52.3853.4154.45
Year 3 PV (M)67.0469.0371.07
Year 4 PV (M)82.8386.1389.53
Year 5 PV (M)99.82104.82110.01
PV of Terminal Value (M)10,567.0411,095.9011,645.72
Equity Value (M)10,907.8911,448.4512,010.31
Shares Outstanding (M)430.93430.93430.93
Fair Value$25.31$26.57$27.87
Upside / Downside174.24%187.83%201.96%

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