Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Industry

Sector

China Spacesat Co.,Ltd. (600118.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Aerospace & DefenseSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.20 - $0.27$0.23
Multi-Stage$0.39 - $0.43$0.41
Blended Fair Value$0.32
Current Price$36.99
Upside-99.13%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-17.81%-6.25%0.050.080.070.110.110.130.120.130.120.09
YoY Growth---41.51%23.38%-37.99%-0.65%-15.65%1.57%-2.92%8.13%28.05%2.38%
Dividend Yield--0.18%0.31%0.23%0.48%0.35%0.43%0.47%0.55%0.37%0.26%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)57.47
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)20.86
(=) Cash Retained (M)36.61
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)11.497.184.31
Cash Retained (M)36.6136.6136.61
(-) Cash Required (M)-11.49-7.18-4.31
(=) Excess Retained (M)25.1129.4232.30
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,193.981,193.981,193.98
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.020.020.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.020.020.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.040.040.04
WACC / Discount Rate9.48%9.48%9.48%
Growth Rate-8.25%-7.25%-6.25%
Fair Value$0.20$0.23$0.27
Upside / Downside-99.46%-99.37%-99.28%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)57.4753.3049.4345.8542.5239.4440.62
Payout Ratio36.30%47.04%57.78%68.52%79.26%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)20.8625.0728.5631.4133.7035.4937.57

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.48%9.48%9.48%
Growth Rate-8.25%-7.25%-6.25%
Year 1 PV (M)22.6522.9023.15
Year 2 PV (M)23.3223.8324.35
Year 3 PV (M)23.1723.9424.72
Year 4 PV (M)22.4623.4624.49
Year 5 PV (M)21.3822.5723.81
PV of Terminal Value (M)349.29368.75389.06
Equity Value (M)462.28485.45509.58
Shares Outstanding (M)1,193.981,193.981,193.98
Fair Value$0.39$0.41$0.43
Upside / Downside-98.95%-98.90%-98.85%

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