Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Shanghai International Port (Group) Co., Ltd. (600018.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Marine ShippingSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$9.93 - $19.33$13.66
Multi-Stage$14.75 - $16.21$15.47
Blended Fair Value$14.56
Current Price$5.45
Upside167.18%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.72%5.61%0.260.190.240.170.190.200.230.200.190.23
YoY Growth--34.92%-21.38%40.09%-9.33%-6.51%-12.65%18.30%4.17%-16.94%53.23%
Dividend Yield--4.44%3.53%4.38%3.17%3.99%4.56%3.17%2.80%3.22%4.12%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)14,416.30
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,940.91
(=) Cash Retained (M)12,475.39
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,883.261,802.041,081.22
Cash Retained (M)12,475.3912,475.3912,475.39
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,883.26-1,802.04-1,081.22
(=) Excess Retained (M)9,592.1310,673.3511,394.17
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)23,252.4023,252.4023,252.40
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.410.460.49
LTM Dividend per Share0.080.080.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.410.460.49
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.500.540.57
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate1.44%2.44%3.44%
Fair Value$9.93$13.66$19.33
Upside / Downside82.12%150.59%254.65%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)14,416.3014,767.9115,128.0915,497.0615,875.0216,262.2116,750.07
Payout Ratio13.46%28.77%44.08%59.39%74.69%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,940.914,248.826,668.169,202.9811,857.4814,635.9915,493.82

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate1.44%2.44%3.44%
Year 1 PV (M)3,950.263,989.204,028.14
Year 2 PV (M)5,763.955,878.155,993.48
Year 3 PV (M)7,396.057,616.957,842.20
Year 4 PV (M)8,859.749,214.309,579.40
Year 5 PV (M)10,167.3510,678.4911,209.98
PV of Terminal Value (M)306,816.29322,240.61338,279.13
Equity Value (M)342,953.64359,617.71376,932.33
Shares Outstanding (M)23,252.4023,252.4023,252.40
Fair Value$14.75$15.47$16.21
Upside / Downside170.63%183.78%197.44%

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