Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Teco Image Systems Co., Ltd. (5438.TWO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Business Equipment & SuppliesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$10.92 - $16.97$13.72
Multi-Stage$26.12 - $28.72$27.40
Blended Fair Value$20.56
Current Price$29.30
Upside-29.84%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS0.00%0.00%0.700.710.570.140.620.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---1.96%24.39%309.99%-77.27%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.25%3.88%3.08%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)92.97
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)73.15
(=) Cash Retained (M)19.82
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)18.5911.626.97
Cash Retained (M)19.8219.8219.82
(-) Cash Required (M)-18.59-11.62-6.97
(=) Excess Retained (M)1.238.2012.85
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)80.4980.4980.49
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.020.100.16
LTM Dividend per Share0.910.910.91
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.020.100.16
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.921.011.07
WACC / Discount Rate6.30%6.30%6.30%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$10.92$13.72$16.97
Upside / Downside-62.74%-53.19%-42.07%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)92.9792.0491.1290.2189.3188.4191.07
Payout Ratio78.68%80.94%83.21%85.47%87.74%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)73.1574.5075.8277.1078.3579.5784.24

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.30%6.30%6.30%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)69.3870.0970.80
Year 2 PV (M)65.7667.1068.47
Year 3 PV (M)62.2764.2066.16
Year 4 PV (M)58.9361.3863.89
Year 5 PV (M)55.7458.6461.66
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,790.411,883.641,980.71
Equity Value (M)2,102.492,205.052,311.70
Shares Outstanding (M)80.4980.4980.49
Fair Value$26.12$27.40$28.72
Upside / Downside-10.84%-6.50%-1.97%

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