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Definitive Analysis

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UOA Development Bhd (5200.KL)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - DevelopmentSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.77 - $1.05$0.91
Multi-Stage$2.57 - $2.84$2.70
Blended Fair Value$1.81
Current Price$1.82
Upside-0.70%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS9.86%10.73%0.010.230.040.010.020.010.010.010.010.01
YoY Growth---96.12%505.35%508.04%-60.38%182.75%-36.40%38.97%14.16%-21.40%118.25%
Dividend Yield--0.52%12.52%2.31%0.36%0.88%0.35%0.41%0.26%0.21%0.33%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)409.49
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)214.31
(=) Cash Retained (M)195.18
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)81.9051.1930.71
Cash Retained (M)195.18195.18195.18
(-) Cash Required (M)-81.90-51.19-30.71
(=) Excess Retained (M)113.28144.00164.47
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,629.472,629.472,629.47
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.050.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.080.080.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.050.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.120.140.14
WACC / Discount Rate6.19%6.19%6.19%
Growth Rate-8.58%-7.58%-6.58%
Fair Value$0.77$0.91$1.05
Upside / Downside-57.64%-49.76%-42.12%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)409.49378.45349.77323.25298.75276.10284.39
Payout Ratio52.34%59.87%67.40%74.93%82.47%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)214.31226.57235.75242.23246.37248.49263.06

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.19%6.19%6.19%
Growth Rate-8.58%-7.58%-6.58%
Year 1 PV (M)211.05213.36215.67
Year 2 PV (M)204.55209.05213.60
Year 3 PV (M)195.77202.26208.90
Year 4 PV (M)185.48193.72202.25
Year 5 PV (M)174.26184.00194.17
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,774.976,097.806,434.92
Equity Value (M)6,746.077,100.207,469.50
Shares Outstanding (M)2,629.472,629.472,629.47
Fair Value$2.57$2.70$2.84
Upside / Downside40.96%48.36%56.08%

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