Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Trend Micro Incorporated (4704.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Software - InfrastructureSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$10,186.06 - $52,436.16$20,740.01
Multi-Stage$5,841.45 - $6,377.78$6,104.76
Blended Fair Value$13,422.38
Current Price$8,100.00
Upside65.71%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS34.36%19.83%727.80153.12200.61156.97163.86166.23149.57141.20109.55112.16
YoY Growth--375.31%-23.67%27.80%-4.21%-1.42%11.14%5.93%28.89%-2.32%-5.90%
Dividend Yield--7.27%1.99%3.10%2.19%2.96%3.11%2.77%2.22%2.21%2.72%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)34,883.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)23,490.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)11,393.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)6,976.604,360.382,616.23
Cash Retained (M)11,393.0011,393.0011,393.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-6,976.60-4,360.38-2,616.23
(=) Excess Retained (M)4,416.407,032.638,776.78
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)132.30132.30132.30
(=) Excess Retained per Share33.3853.1666.34
LTM Dividend per Share177.55177.55177.55
(+) Excess Retained per Share33.3853.1666.34
(=) Adjusted Dividend210.93230.71243.89
WACC / Discount Rate7.68%7.68%7.68%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$10,186.06$20,740.01$52,436.16
Upside / Downside25.75%156.05%547.36%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)34,883.0037,150.4039,565.1742,136.9144,875.8147,792.7349,226.52
Payout Ratio67.34%71.87%76.40%80.94%85.47%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)23,490.0026,700.5530,229.2334,103.8238,354.4043,013.4645,534.53

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.68%7.68%7.68%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)24,562.3124,795.1325,027.94
Year 2 PV (M)25,581.4426,068.6926,560.54
Year 3 PV (M)26,549.1127,311.2428,087.81
Year 4 PV (M)27,466.9828,523.2929,609.77
Year 5 PV (M)28,336.6929,705.3631,126.42
PV of Terminal Value (M)640,333.26671,261.59703,373.63
Equity Value (M)772,829.79807,665.30843,786.12
Shares Outstanding (M)132.30132.30132.30
Fair Value$5,841.45$6,104.76$6,377.78
Upside / Downside-27.88%-24.63%-21.26%

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