Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Bin Dawood Holding Company (4161.SR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Grocery StoresSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.17 - $3.38$2.73
Multi-Stage$5.20 - $5.72$5.46
Blended Fair Value$4.09
Current Price$5.65
Upside-27.55%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-1.41%0.00%0.200.200.160.130.280.220.180.250.220.00
YoY Growth---0.15%29.03%24.00%-55.16%30.04%16.67%-26.80%13.18%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.21%2.28%2.36%1.31%2.57%2.04%1.75%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)262.59
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)228.06
(=) Cash Retained (M)34.53
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)52.5232.8219.69
Cash Retained (M)34.5334.5334.53
(-) Cash Required (M)-52.52-32.82-19.69
(=) Excess Retained (M)-17.991.7014.83
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,137.341,137.341,137.34
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.020.000.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.200.200.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.020.000.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.180.200.21
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$2.17$2.73$3.38
Upside / Downside-61.53%-51.69%-40.26%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)262.59259.96257.36254.79252.24249.72257.21
Payout Ratio86.85%87.48%88.11%88.74%89.37%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)228.06227.42226.76226.10225.43224.75237.92

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)211.72213.88216.04
Year 2 PV (M)196.55200.58204.65
Year 3 PV (M)182.45188.09193.85
Year 4 PV (M)169.36176.37183.61
Year 5 PV (M)157.19165.38173.90
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,001.795,262.245,533.44
Equity Value (M)5,919.066,206.556,505.49
Shares Outstanding (M)1,137.341,137.341,137.34
Fair Value$5.20$5.46$5.72
Upside / Downside-7.89%-3.41%1.24%

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