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Definitive Analysis

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Riyadh Cables Group Company (4142.SR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$520.68 - $1,419.44$1,330.22
Multi-Stage$201.45 - $220.36$210.73
Blended Fair Value$770.47
Current Price$127.00
Upside506.67%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018
DPS14.33%0.00%3.002.501.561.311.191.541.960.000.000.00
YoY Growth--19.78%60.70%18.97%9.84%-22.34%-21.70%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.34%2.54%2.95%3.46%3.15%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,069.30
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)524.13
(=) Cash Retained (M)545.17
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)213.86133.6680.20
Cash Retained (M)545.17545.17545.17
(-) Cash Required (M)-213.86-133.66-80.20
(=) Excess Retained (M)331.31411.51464.97
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)149.82149.82149.82
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.212.753.10
LTM Dividend per Share3.503.503.50
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.212.753.10
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.716.256.60
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$520.68$1,330.22$1,419.44
Upside / Downside309.99%947.42%1,017.67%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,069.301,138.811,212.831,291.661,375.621,465.041,508.99
Payout Ratio49.02%57.21%65.41%73.61%81.80%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)524.13651.55793.31950.751,125.301,318.531,395.81

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)605.14610.88616.62
Year 2 PV (M)684.34697.37710.53
Year 3 PV (M)761.74783.61805.89
Year 4 PV (M)837.38869.59902.71
Year 5 PV (M)911.30955.311,001.01
PV of Terminal Value (M)26,380.3427,654.5228,977.47
Equity Value (M)30,180.2431,571.2833,014.22
Shares Outstanding (M)149.82149.82149.82
Fair Value$201.45$210.73$220.36
Upside / Downside58.62%65.93%73.51%

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