Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Ibiden Co.,Ltd. (4062.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4,130.15 - $7,949.47$5,657.94
Multi-Stage$6,757.39 - $7,430.85$7,087.64
Blended Fair Value$6,372.79
Current Price$6,347.00
Upside0.41%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS2.71%3.05%39.2339.2349.0439.2334.3334.3334.3333.3832.6633.88
YoY Growth--0.00%-20.00%25.00%14.28%0.00%0.00%2.86%2.21%-3.62%16.66%
Dividend Yield--0.62%0.60%0.61%1.03%0.57%1.09%1.79%1.88%1.69%2.95%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)37,615.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5,595.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)32,020.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)7,523.004,701.882,821.13
Cash Retained (M)32,020.0032,020.0032,020.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-7,523.00-4,701.88-2,821.13
(=) Excess Retained (M)24,497.0027,318.1329,198.88
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)142.61142.61142.61
(=) Excess Retained per Share171.78191.56204.75
LTM Dividend per Share39.2339.2339.23
(+) Excess Retained per Share171.78191.56204.75
(=) Adjusted Dividend211.01230.80243.98
WACC / Discount Rate6.22%6.22%6.22%
Growth Rate1.05%2.05%3.05%
Fair Value$4,130.15$5,657.94$7,949.47
Upside / Downside-34.93%-10.86%25.25%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)37,615.0038,387.0939,175.0339,979.1440,799.7541,637.2142,886.33
Payout Ratio14.87%29.90%44.92%59.95%74.97%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5,595.0011,477.5517,599.2423,967.3930,589.5737,473.4939,669.86

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.22%6.22%6.22%
Growth Rate1.05%2.05%3.05%
Year 1 PV (M)10,700.0310,805.9110,911.80
Year 2 PV (M)15,295.5515,599.7715,906.99
Year 3 PV (M)19,419.0320,001.2620,595.01
Year 4 PV (M)23,105.5124,033.7724,989.73
Year 5 PV (M)26,387.7327,719.4829,104.45
PV of Terminal Value (M)868,744.68912,588.66958,185.21
Equity Value (M)963,652.541,010,748.851,059,693.18
Shares Outstanding (M)142.61142.61142.61
Fair Value$6,757.39$7,087.64$7,430.85
Upside / Downside6.47%11.67%17.08%

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