Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Middle East Pharmaceutical Industries Company (4016.SR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - PharmaceuticalsSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$42.80 - $65.79$53.51
Multi-Stage$94.71 - $104.22$99.37
Blended Fair Value$76.44
Current Price$125.40
Upside-39.04%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS-8.94%0.00%0.721.741.761.801.751.160.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---58.33%-0.96%-2.29%2.59%51.39%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.56%1.19%1.65%1.69%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)97.29
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)46.98
(=) Cash Retained (M)50.31
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)19.4612.167.30
Cash Retained (M)50.3150.3150.31
(-) Cash Required (M)-19.46-12.16-7.30
(=) Excess Retained (M)30.8638.1543.02
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)20.7120.7120.71
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.491.842.08
LTM Dividend per Share2.272.272.27
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.491.842.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.764.114.35
WACC / Discount Rate6.61%6.61%6.61%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$42.80$53.51$65.79
Upside / Downside-65.87%-57.33%-47.54%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)97.2996.3295.3694.4093.4692.5395.30
Payout Ratio48.29%56.63%64.97%73.31%81.66%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)46.9854.5561.9669.2176.3283.2788.15

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.61%6.61%6.61%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)50.6551.1751.68
Year 2 PV (M)53.4254.5255.62
Year 3 PV (M)55.4157.1358.88
Year 4 PV (M)56.7459.0961.51
Year 5 PV (M)57.4960.4863.60
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,687.681,775.561,867.07
Equity Value (M)1,961.382,057.942,158.35
Shares Outstanding (M)20.7120.7120.71
Fair Value$94.71$99.37$104.22
Upside / Downside-24.47%-20.76%-16.89%

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