Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Dr. Sulaiman Al Habib Medical Services Group Company (4013.SR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Care FacilitiesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$427.81 - $1,339.47$1,255.28
Multi-Stage$184.01 - $201.10$192.40
Blended Fair Value$723.84
Current Price$271.20
Upside166.90%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS12.69%0.00%4.694.103.252.701.502.582.251.480.571.80
YoY Growth--14.39%26.15%20.37%80.00%-41.88%14.57%52.51%158.70%-68.28%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.67%1.34%1.12%1.42%1.21%4.70%4.10%2.69%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,357.34
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,652.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)705.34
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)471.47294.67176.80
Cash Retained (M)705.34705.34705.34
(-) Cash Required (M)-471.47-294.67-176.80
(=) Excess Retained (M)233.87410.67528.54
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)350.00350.00350.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.671.171.51
LTM Dividend per Share4.724.724.72
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.671.171.51
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.395.896.23
WACC / Discount Rate6.83%6.83%6.83%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$427.81$1,255.28$1,339.47
Upside / Downside57.75%362.86%393.90%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,357.342,510.572,673.762,847.553,032.643,229.763,326.66
Payout Ratio70.08%74.06%78.05%82.03%86.02%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,652.001,859.412,086.802,335.892,608.552,906.793,077.16

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.83%6.83%6.83%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,724.211,740.551,756.89
Year 2 PV (M)1,794.361,828.541,863.04
Year 3 PV (M)1,862.501,915.971,970.45
Year 4 PV (M)1,928.672,002.842,079.13
Year 5 PV (M)1,992.912,089.162,189.11
PV of Terminal Value (M)55,101.9057,763.3460,526.64
Equity Value (M)64,404.5467,340.4070,385.25
Shares Outstanding (M)350.00350.00350.00
Fair Value$184.01$192.40$201.10
Upside / Downside-32.15%-29.06%-25.85%

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