Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Samty Residential Investment Corporation (3459.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - ResidentialSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$169,089.08 - $401,952.39$249,672.94
Multi-Stage$187,753.63 - $205,332.32$196,380.31
Blended Fair Value$223,026.62
Current Price$93,300.00
Upside139.04%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS5.15%0.00%5,464.345,525.185,482.654,601.543,987.174,251.483,682.841,795.061,764.15696.62
YoY Growth---1.10%0.78%19.15%15.41%-6.22%15.44%105.17%1.75%153.24%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.86%5.39%4.71%3.71%3.13%4.54%3.14%1.97%2.11%0.78%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)6,837.83
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5,784.41
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,053.42
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,367.57854.73512.84
Cash Retained (M)1,053.421,053.421,053.42
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,367.57-854.73-512.84
(=) Excess Retained (M)-314.15198.69540.58
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)0.840.840.84
(=) Excess Retained per Share-373.45236.20642.63
LTM Dividend per Share6,876.396,876.396,876.39
(+) Excess Retained per Share-373.45236.20642.63
(=) Adjusted Dividend6,502.947,112.597,519.02
WACC / Discount Rate7.11%7.11%7.11%
Growth Rate3.15%4.15%5.15%
Fair Value$169,089.08$249,672.94$401,952.39
Upside / Downside81.23%167.60%330.82%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)6,837.837,121.437,416.807,724.428,044.808,378.478,629.83
Payout Ratio84.59%85.68%86.76%87.84%88.92%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5,784.416,101.326,434.566,784.967,153.357,540.627,982.59

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.11%7.11%7.11%
Growth Rate3.15%4.15%5.15%
Year 1 PV (M)5,641.375,696.075,750.76
Year 2 PV (M)5,501.005,608.185,716.40
Year 3 PV (M)5,363.295,520.805,681.36
Year 4 PV (M)5,228.245,433.955,645.68
Year 5 PV (M)5,095.835,347.685,609.39
PV of Terminal Value (M)131,108.39137,588.19144,321.70
Equity Value (M)157,938.12165,194.87172,725.29
Shares Outstanding (M)0.840.840.84
Fair Value$187,753.63$196,380.31$205,332.32
Upside / Downside101.24%110.48%120.08%

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